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John Sorflaten,
Ph.D., CPE, started out writing and directing training films and
documentaries then switched to UI design. "A screen is a screen,"
he says. He works at Human Factors International, Inc. and can be
reached by email at
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Bob Wendell,
B.A.
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What will information systems offer the world in 25 years? The easy answer
is "Watch Star Trek." The hard answer is "Let's think about
how systems grow."
BIO-BASED PREDICTIONS Those who write about development
of biological systems try to account for the causes of new functions.
For example, mollusks that normally appear one color when grown in fresh
water take on another color and shape when adapting to salt water. When
looking from the effect backwards to the cause, biologists can do a good
job of explaining why the changes came about. However, when looking from
the cause, trying to predict the effects,
they often give up. This is because complex systems have "emergent
properties," i.e., a "phase change" arises when combinations
of features unpredictably assert dominance over the current features.
Nothing new. Welcome to "chaos theory."
"All Life Is A Stage..." But for Homo
sapiens, in both the personal and social realm of human endeavor,
we have a surprise. We have some "emergent properties" that
are predictable in their developmental trajectory. Maturational stages
predictable follow the preceding stage. That is, we can reasonably predict
the infant to become the exploring but probably thoughtless youngster.
We can fully expect the risk-taking adolescent to become the young, probably
mating adult. Likewise the middle-aged, conservative parent will become
the risk-averse, and perhaps wise, old grandparent.
Other determinants of the stage-driven prediction have less, but countable
influence. Socioeconomic status of the parents strongly influence the
educational potential of the youth, but do not determine it. Social surroundings
influence the criminal potential of the young adult, but do not determine
it.
Whence Comes "Maturity?" What does this all
have to do with the future of information systems? We suggest that any
"system" worth its silicon follows some sequence of developmental
stages. While the rate and details of growth may be indeterminate, the
sequence must certainly have a predictable pattern. (This assumes the
absence of stress-induced system-suicide and absence of other nuclear-related
pathologies such as MAD – mutual assured destruction.)
National cultures exhibit signs of varying stages of maturity. We see
this in their tolerance of innovation and creative risk versus slavish
adherence to the tried and true. For example, music of the '60s and '70s
incessantly blares from the "oldies" radio format stations.
As though locked in endless memory rehearsals, our own baby boom marketing
group faces the debilitation of continuously reliving the past, rather
than creating the present. No wonder aggressive corporations lay off older
workers. Even worse, it may be of great concern to some parents in the
U.S. that their children actually like and listen to music that was recorded
and popular 30 years previous.
Old Can Be Beautiful These fears aside, we can imagine
an alternative scenario in which a national culture benefits from its
maturing work force. The advice and council of the experienced members
can save the younger workers the waste of trial and error learning. Corporate
cultures can steer through the economic racecourse with seasoned drivers.
Their maturity reflects the lessons of having survived many prior race
events and the lessons of their cunning techniques.
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